A supporter of President Donald Trump waves a "TRUMP 2020" hat during a campaign rally in Wildwood, N.J., on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2020. "One essential lesson of the Trump era is that likelihoods are not enough; if you want to end the Trump era only one thing will suffice. You have to beat him," writes Ross Douthat. (Calla Kessler/The New York Times)